Evaluation of CMIP6 model performances in simulating fire weather spatiotemporal variability on global and regional scales

Abstract. Weather and climate play an important role in shaping global wildfire regimes geographical distributions of burnable area. As projected by the Sixth Assessment Report Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR6), near future, fire danger is likely to increase many regions due warmer temperatures drier conditions. General circulation models (GCMs) are resource understanding how will evolve a changing climate, but, date, development risk scenarios has not fully accounted for systematic GCM errors biases. This study presents comprehensive evaluation spatiotemporal representation weather indicators from Canadian Forest Fire Index System simulated 16 GCMs sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). While at scale, ensemble mean able represent variability, magnitude spatial extent different reasonably well when compared latest reanalysis, there considerable regional seasonal dependence performance each GCM. To support selection application impact studies, results combined generate rankings individual performance. The findings highlight value developing more reliable projections future climate-driven danger, thereby enabling decision makers forest managers take targeted action respond events.